Forecasting vs Predicting
Just returned from
One of the more interesting presentations at the conference was by Bob Treadway, Futurist. What caught my immediate attention was how he became a futurist. “I’m a futurist because that’s what I started calling myself” – I liked him right away for his honesty and directness.
His key message was the concept of flexible forecasting as opposed to predicting. An example of flexible forecasting is like saying the economy will recovery sometime between 8 and 48 months as opposed to predicting something like the recovery would be spring 2010. A little extreme but he made the point that predictions often are wrong and can lead to some bad decisions but a flexible forecast forces you to look at things more deeply and from a different perspective. This often leads to better decision making.
Using the economic recovery example, he said everyone is using leading indicators such as the price of oil, interest rates, jobless rates, or the stock market but Treadway made the very valid point that different industries recovery at different times and hence people’s fortunes will do so as well. So he advocates the use of personal indicators; this he argued will be far more accurate and allow you to more closely forecast when your personal economic recovery will begin.
So on that note here are mine:
- The big three OEM vendors in our industry all start showing a marked increase in requests for quotes which translates to a 20% increase in leads for the channel
- The return of RFID proof of concepts projects and interest in RFID
- Customers start looking at projects which generate revenue generation as opposed to cutting costs
- OEMs in our industry report two back to quarters of growing profits
- OEMs and Distributors start hiring again
Ultimately I need to decide how many of these (or all of them) constitute a recovery, but it’s still better than the alternative of just following general trends.
He ended the presentation on a cautionary note with his Noah Principle:
“Just predicting rain doesn’t count… building an ark does”.
So what are yours? Looking forward to your answers.
Bob Treadway web site is http://www.trendtalk.com/
Posted By: Jeff Lem @ 6:14:38 PM
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Saturday, April 25, 2009
Did You Know 3.0 – What Does it All MEAN?
I just viewed a very popular YouTube clip (1.4 milion views and counting) that presents some facts on how the information explosion is re-shaping society. The eye popping trends for me were:
Top 10 Jobs in 2010 didn’t exist in 2004
US Depart of Labor predicts today’s learners will have 10 to 14 jobs by the age of 38
Today 1 in 4 workers will be with the company less than 1 year and...
1 in 2 employees have been with the company less than 5 years
31 billion searches are performed on Google each month vs 2.7 billion in 2006
More text messages are sent each day more than the entire human population
How many Years did these take to get to an audience of 50 million?
Radio 38 years
TV 13 years
Internet 4 years
iPod 3 years
Facebook 2 years
Susan Boyle 2 weeks
The video concludes with the question: What Does It all Mean?
For me the above trends underscore the correlation between societal change and information. It is now easier than ever to access information and this represents the single greatest change agent in society today. It is making the world a much small place, allowing people to make more informed choices, and allowing many to re-invent their lives and careers.
So what does AIDC have to do with that? I say PLENTY.
I grew up believing that things can be good, fast, and cheap – but only two of them at a time. With information and the internet that is no longer the case.
AIDC plays a key role in ensuring data (which eventually becomes information) stays good, cheap, and fast. With the advent of faster and cheaper networks for both inside and outside the four walls, real time access is now a given and this provides for fast movement of data. The cost of AIDC equipment has steadily come down as well while features have gone up. Thanks to features such as WiFi, GSM, GPS, phone, digital camera, and Bluetooth, the ROI associated with AIDC is compelling as ever and makes for cheap data. As for the good part, AIDC is your best bet for getting good data. Bar codes, RFID, and well a designed AIDC application is your guarantee of accurate and timely data. It is also a great first line of defense against employee turnover. AIDC applications reduce the decision making complexities of a job and this dramatically lowers the entry level requirements and ramp up time associated with training new workers. Not to mention boosting the general productivity of your current workforce as well.
So there you have it – Good, Fast, and Cheap data, the underpinnings of today’s information explosion. AIDC is a vital component and very likely coming to a ‘job near you’ if it already hasn’t.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8
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Monday, March 23, 2009
Why You Should Renew that Software Service Contract
Something we’re hearing alot these days is that IT Directors/Managers are being told to reduce costs, spend the bare minimum on systems maintenance, and postpone upgrades to their software product.
Our view on this topic is that a software service contract is vital to the continued operation of your business and contrary to popular belief actually saves money.
Here are the main reasons for renewing that software service contract:
Priority Service
Clients with paid support contacts receive first response for service calls and diagnostic efforts.
Free Support Questions and Triage
Sometimes a problem can be solved in seconds by just having access to an experienced systems engineer. Time is money. Without a support contract there is typically a minimum fee meaning the need to issue a
Free Diagnostic Service
With a historic up time of 99.993%, many of the issues we encounter are caused by issues outside of our software such as incorrect use, server failure, or network connection. In those instances when our software is not the issue, we are often asked to pass on our findings and consult with the client’s IT group. Because the issue has been already identified, your IT support group can correct it very quickly.
Free Upgrades
With your paid support contract all general system upgrades are included.
Discount on Purchased Blocks of Support Time
When you purchase time by the day many plans include a discount on hourly rate for custom work not covered by the service contract.
Free Estimates
The cost of consulting can be expensive. With a paid support contract most development and project management teams will provide a Scope of Work free of charge.
Future Enhancements
Our software is continually being enhanced. In our case we have a roadmap of features targeted for future release. Many of our clients have been able to dramatically improve their competitiveness because of these enhancements.
Access to and Discounts for Training Resources
Employee turnover costs companies plenty, according to HR professionals up to six months salary is spent in re-hiring and training new personnel. To lessen that cost, software vendors including qdata offer classroom training both onsite and at a training facility.
System Monitoring and Maintenance
Based on your service level and contact terms your vendor can perform regular monitoring and maintenance of your system. Through monitoring your IT group will be kept apprised of suspected problems and the regular maintenance program ensures your system keeps running trouble free.
Extended Hours Support
Based on your business requirements and internal support capability you can often arrange for 24/7/365 support.
In summary a service contract is an invaluable resource that keeps your mission critical systems running and is an important tool for controlling IT costs. When your systems are working, you can focus on driving revenue and providing exceptional service to your customers.
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Saturday, March 07, 2009
The Value of AIDC
Many times customers ask us to help cost justify their investment in Automatic Identification and Data Capture (AIDC) technologies. This list should help you get started (the source of these stats are from VDC, Grocery Councils, Aberdeen Group, OEM studies and our own experience):
In the Warehouse…
Inventory accuracy up 99%
Inventory counts are eliminated
5% increase shipping accuracy
27% reduction in carrying costs
35% reduction in warehouse operating costs
In the Store…
Shelf price labeling is reduced to a few hours a week from over 100 hrs
Automated receiving processes coupled with more accurate shiping eliminate delays associated with mis-ships resulting in much lower stock outs and reduces receiving time by up to 60%
Delivery personnel spend 2x more time on merchandising than their non-automated competitors
RFID reduces stockouts by up to 14%
In the Factory…
Recall is based on narrow vs broad measures. Down to the specific pallet and case with detailed shipment records
All tools and equipment are now barcode or RFID tagged and assigned to specific locations. Equipment is now ‘signed’ out against the employee’s badge and work order
Job borrowing is curtailed as all pre-ordered material has a 4”x6” labels showing assigned job # and resource ID
Labels are in compliance with customers and also used to support picking and shipping processes
In the Field…
Companies achieve 27% gain in productivity
Report 23% increase in service levels
Completed work orders increase 22%
First call resolution increases by 21%
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Sunday, February 22, 2009
Connect Now! Partnering for Success – Why it Matters
While the official announcement of our expo is a few weeks away, it’s important to communicate why we’re doing this expo at a time when marketing expenses are being slashed and attendance at industry events is being curtailed. The event will be held this June in
So why are we doing this event? Personally I’ve had my fill hearing about the economy, recession, downturn, restructuring, layoffs, sub-prime, and job losses. These are words you won’t be hearing at our event instead I want to focus on: revenue generation, productivity, cost savings, efficiency, and opportunity. These words inspire, create hope, and fuel optimism. They must be in our minds if not our hearts if we are to fully consider new more profitable ways of doing business. So what is the event going to be all about?
For starters we’re going to have a vendor fair so you can sample the latest bar coding, wireless, and data collection technologies. We’re going to show case customers who've taken these technologies and changed how they do business for the better. And we’re going to be showing new game changing technologies such as the TEAM phones from Motorola – all I can say is watch out Telcos!
But most important of all, this event is about connecting and partnering. Not just with technology providers but with your peers in the industry. More than ever we need get out and discover what people are doing today. The truly smart managers are not just fixing stuff but laying down the foundation for exponential growth when the current business cycle is over.
So come to Connect Now! and get inspired about creating the type of future that only enterprise mobility technologies can do!
Connect Now! Partnering for Success, June 9, Westin Bristol Hotel,
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Monday, January 19, 2009
8 AIDC Predictions for 2009
1. Value Value Value. While discounting will become the norm in 2009, companies will not necessarily buy the lowest price. Instead they’ll be looking for the best value meaning suppliers will be getting creative by rolling in additional services/products, extending warranties, and/or structuring stretch payments.
2. Manufacturers will accelerate the purchase of AIDC Technologies. They’ll use the recession and government incentives to restructure operations and shed inefficient processes. This efficiency drive will include implementation of bar coding and real time data collection systems.
3. One Stop Shopping. Instead of buying best of breed from a number of different vendors, customers will be looking for integrated solution sets. While each solution in itself may not be the best in class; being fully integrated reduces both the cost and risk of the IT project.
4 Partnering. As a result of 3 above, we’ll see a dramatic rise in partnering between both complementary and competitive vendors as they fill geographic, product, or service gaps. For those that figure out a way to partner will emerge stronger coming out of this recession.
5. RFID. Don’t expect big bang ambitious RFID projects but rather smaller proof of concept projects or applications that address a specific supply chain issue.
6. Wireless Data Plans. With consumers wanting more bandwidth to support multi-media applications on their smart phones, carriers will move to closer to an ‘all you can eat wireless data model'. This will spill over to the business sector and make the cost of implementing of wireless outside the four walls applications more attractive. The only catch here is whether carriers can raise the financing to support rollouts of new spectrum and capacity to support this all you can eat model.
7. The Age of
8. Industry Consolidation. I don’t expect to see a lot consolidation between resellers but rather consolidation between our OEM partners. I expect Honeywell to be doing something as will Zebra. This is a great time for them to increase market share given the attractive valuations out there.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
My Top 10 AIDC Resolutions for 2009
Welcome Back!
By now most of you have made your New Year's resolutions and if you're like me have already broken a few. From an auto ID perspective here are my top 10:
- Implement that System. Irrespective of whether you're right sizing or freezing headcount right now; bar coding follows this simple rule: it makes people more productive, makes data more timely and accurate and improves decision making.
- Get your Printheads cleaned. It takes less than 30 seconds per printer - not only do your bar codes come out clearer but the print head will last longer too.
- Replace or upgrade your location labels. I've lost count how many warehouses I've visited that have worn or missing labels. And while you're at it try using colour codes to differentiate levels or zones - you'd be surprised how that will cut down on handling errors.
- Fix that RF Dead Spot in the Warehouse. Everybody has a forbidden zone where the wireless network has no coverage. Maybe it's coincidental but materials often make their way into those very spots. A warehouse's RF profile changes over time due to racking movements, inventory, and aging equipment - so expect your RF coverage to change as well.
- Replace old batteries. Nothing is more frustrating than taking a seemingly fully charged handheld computer out into the warehouse or field only to find out that the battery lasts less than one hour.
- Repair or replace old or damaged bar coding scanning equipment. Stuff that is falling apart and needs frequent repairs will cost you more in downtime than the actual repair costs.
- Attend a seminar or webinar on RFID. This stuff is for real but don't expect it to just replace your bar codes. An educational seminar (most are free) will fire up your imagination and lead you to consider applications and that can't be handled by a bar code.
- Look Outside the Four Walls. Eliminate the walls that separate you from your business partners by sharing the data encoded in bar codes and RFID tags. Once you have greater visibility you can start driving out excess inventory and hence cost out of your supply chain. Same applies to your internal supply chain too.
- Use a Self Check Out Lane. I must admit this is the highlight of my shopping experience. But for everyone else, using these innovations saves the retailer a lot of money that will be passed along to the consumer in the form of lower prices.
- Work with an Auto ID Partner that gets it. Yes I'm being self serving but the little bar code has grown up and now can be found across the Enterprise. From inventory control and asset tracking to customer loyalty cards, and electronic shopping assistants - the lowly barcode continues to amaze by enabling applications that make life more productive and convenient.
Here's to Scanners On in 2009!
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